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Prediction for CME (2025-11-07T07:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-07T07:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42516/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. While the bulk of this event is directed towards the northeast, a faint halo feature is produced from the shock of this CME. The source is an M1.7 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27E27) starting around 2025-11-07T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed north of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, with minor field line movement visible over the northeast limb in GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. This eruption can be observed near the northeast limb in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. The glancing blow arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-09T18:05Z, characterized by an increase in B-total from 5nT to 7.7nT and a sudden corresponding increase starting at about 2025-11-09T20:00Z in both solar wind speed (about 510 km/s to 590 km/s) and temperature (about 100,000 K to 270,000 K). There was a preceding gradual increase in density from about 2 p/cc to about 9 p/cc, followed by a declining trend starting at about 2025-11-09T19:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-09T18:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-10T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51107
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Nov 2025, 1242UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 027
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 010

Coronal mass ejections: A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 596)
was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:36 UTC on November 07. This
CME is associated with a M1.76 flare (SIDC flare 5971) peaking on November
07 at 14:00 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active
Region 4274) and a type IV radio burst. Analysis of this CME is ongoing.

-----------------

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (SIDC CME 596) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 07:36 UTC on November 07. This CME is likely associated with a M1.76 flare (SIDC flare 5971) peaking on November 07 at 14:00 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). A preliminary estimate of the CME velocity is around 530 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has remained at background levels.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
#                                                                    #

Lead Time: 50.33 hour(s)
Difference: -5.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-07T15:45Z

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